David Coombs, fund manager, Rathbone Multi-Asset Portfolios, explains why he has been warming to the UK, as have others, as well as the potential risks ahead
What’s that Michael Phelps quote? “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.”
Boris Johnson didn’t strike me as a swimmer, despite the chlorinated tinge to his hair, but he certainly proved me wrong at the G7 summit this month. And his government has most definitely adhered to Phelps’s principle during the pandemic. Let’s not forget that the UK’s early response to the crisis really was a botch-job – Dominic Cummings certainly made a concerted effort to remind everybody recently. In fact, it was so bad that it turned my multi-asset team off the UK. At the beginning of 2020 we had been starting to move more of our equity portfolio into the country, as we felt it was out of fashion and ripe for beating very low expectations. However, once the government’s initial disorganisation became apparent, we immediately reversed our move.
What a tumble turn
But now, the UK has outdone itself with its highly efficient vaccine rollout. The take-up among citizens has been really high too, especially compared with some other nations. This is just as important as the efficacy of the vaccines themselves, because they are no good if not in the arm of most people. Even as the UK has opened up wide for the summer, the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations have thankfully stayed remarkably low. The magic of modern medicine. It feels like it could be the endgame for the pandemic in the UK now (even if COVID itself may linger as a common but managed flu). If that is correct, we feel like we’ve returned to the situation of early 2020: an unloved market with the flexibility to shake things up and the potential to beat the crowds of naysayers.
We aren’t the only investors who have started warming to the UK either. So far this year private equity firms have bought out 131 publicly traded companies in the UK, totalling £25.7 billion, greater than in the whole of 2020. That’s according to investment data company PitchBook. And the crazy part is that last year’s £17.5 billion of deals was a record for Britain. This avalanche of buyouts has got a few Members of Parliament worried about foreigners picking off our nation’s economic crown jewels at an unjustified discount. However, the point remains: UK companies have been trading at large discounts to overseas rivals for a long time now.
Risk is always there
There are still risks, of course. COVID-19 has dunked markets a few times now, so we can’t rule out another upset. And if the virus really is under control, then there is a lot of unravelling of supply chain snarl-ups and labour dislocation to come. This could take a few months to shake out – and perhaps a little longer for the labour market. Many businesses report they are struggling to fill vacant positions, which is understandable given the tumult of the past year and the tightening of immigration following Brexit. It takes more time for people to move into the industries and areas where opportunities are more abundant (it’s easier to move money as it doesn’t have friends, family and a home). But we are confident that even this market will do its thing given time, no doubt with a bit of lobbying from labour-strapped businesses. We’re seeing that already, ironically from arch-Brexiter and Wetherspoons boss Tim Martin.
Bluntly, though, the UK does now have the ability to set rules to suit its needs, so this shouldn’t be an issue. Particularly if the punters suffer a summer with 40-minute wait times for a pint…
[Main image: michael-d-beckwith-unsplash]
