Following the Federal Reserve’s May rate decision, Darrell Spence, economist at Capital Group, explores the possibility that interest rates will not fall in 2024.
Earlier this year, many investors were convinced the US Federal Reserve was on track to reduce interest rates four times by the end of 2024. Back then, it struck me as wishful thinking. Today, given higher-than-expected inflation, I think it’s even more unlikely. I believe there is a strong chance we will get no rate cuts at all this year — and that markets should be fine without them.
For some investors who have been eagerly awaiting a rate cut, this may sound akin to cancelling Christmas. However, if the Fed decides to stand firm, it is not necessarily a bad outcome, depending on the reason. In my view, there are three solid reasons to keep the federal funds rate right where it is throughout 2024.
The US economy can handle it
The US economy continues to grow at a healthy pace despite a dramatic rise in the fed funds rate to its current range of 5.25% to 5.50%. That’s a 23-year high. And yet the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is now predicting that the US economy will expand this year at more than twice the rate of other major developed countries. Last week, the IMF raised its forecast for US economic growth to 2.7% on an annualised basis, compared to 0.8% for Europe and 0.9% for Japan.
The resilience of the US economy, in the face of much higher interest rates, has been one of the biggest surprises of the past two years. It wasn’t long ago that many investors and economists thought we would be heading into a recession. Now it appears the US economy could grow at a rate above the IMF forecast, potentially hitting 3.0% as American consumers continue to spend, the labour market remains tight, and manufacturers invest in newly diversified supply chains in the post-pandemic era.
This type of solid growth is not normally associated with rate cuts. In fact, the US economy appears to have adjusted quite well to a higher interest rate environment. Even with home mortgage rates around 7.1%, as of 18 April, total home sales and home prices have been rising in early 2024.
Given this resilience, there is reason to worry that the US economy could overheat if the Fed lowers rates prematurely, which could reignite inflationary pressures.
Progress on inflation is stalling
There is no question that the Fed’s battle against inflation has gone well, but it is not over. Consumer prices have fallen from the highs of June 2022, but remain significantly above the Fed’s 2% target. Going that final mile — from 3.0% to 2.0% — could be the toughest part of the journey.
Ultimately, if the Fed does not cut this year, it will likely be because inflation is not falling as quickly as anticipated by central bank officials. In my view, that is a likely scenario. Much of the recent decline in inflation has occurred in the consumer goods sector, where prices have been falling at the fastest pace in nearly 20 years. I don’t think that is sustainable, particularly with the US dollar no longer strengthening at the pace witnessed over the past year.
In addition, higher home prices may have a greater impact on rental inflation than in the past, given recent changes in data-gathering methodology. Outside of housing, service sector inflation is headed in the wrong direction, climbing at an annualised rate above 6.0% over the past six months. This is largely a function of solid wage growth due to a strong labour market. The US unemployment rate has moved up slightly to 3.8%, but that’s still near a 50-year low.
One might think inflation in the range of 2.5% to 3.0% is close enough, but the Fed has repeatedly stressed the importance of that 2.0% goal. In the pre-pandemic era, when disinflationary pressures were the problem, Fed officials felt that inflation rates of 1.5% or 1.6% were too low. So we should probably assume that 40 or 50 basis points above target is, therefore, too high today.
Financial markets are fine with the status quo
US and international stock markets hit a series of record highs in the first quarter of 2024. April has been less enthusiastic, largely due to inflation worries and rising tensions in the Middle East. But still, it is clear that stocks in aggregate have been able to overcome the fear that higher interest rates would kill the bull market that started early last year. While more interest rate sensitive fixed income investments have seen weaker returns this year as rate expectations have shifted, more credit-driven bond sectors have felt a tailwind as earnings and economic growth have surprised to the upside. And ultimately, bond investors benefit from higher yields as income returns to the fixed income markets.
A market rally in the wake of higher rates is not unusual. Looking back over the past 30 years, stocks and bonds have generally done well in periods following a Fed rate-hiking campaign. In fact, since 1994, both asset classes were significantly higher one year after the end of a Fed tightening cycle, with the exception of US stocks from May 2000 to May 2002, a period marred by the dot-com implosion.
Over time, markets tend to adjust to the prevailing interest-rate environment. Markets can react violently at the beginning of a rate-hiking campaign, as we saw in 2022, when stocks and bonds both tumbled. But once we reach a new level of stability, as long as it is within a reasonable range, markets have often been able to resume their long-term growth trajectory, influenced more by corporate earnings and economic growth than monetary policy.
I do think Fed officials want to cut rates. They have made it clear that they believe current policy is restrictive and, therefore, it is a reasonable conclusion that they are leaning toward bringing rates down.
As investors, however, I think we need to question that assumption. We need to consider the possibility that, in light of recent healthy growth, maybe Fed policy is not restrictive. Maybe that’s why we haven’t had a recession. And maybe that’s why we won’t get a rate cut in 2024.
Rather than being a negative, however, the absence of a rate cut this year could simply reflect the fact that the US economy is doing quite well — and that history suggests it could be an excellent time to be invested in both equities and credit-oriented fixed income for investors willing to take a long-term perspective.
