In this special 400th FundCalibre ‘Investing on the Go’ podcast episode, Managing Director – Darius McDermott and Research Director – Juliet Schooling Latter, take broad look at global markets at the halfway point of the year.
Darius and Juliet cover easing geopolitical tensions, inflation dynamics, and the continued influence of AI on equity returns. They explore the broadening of market performance beyond the US, with strength in Asia and emerging markets, alongside challenges in India and a mixed picture in the UK.
The episode also examines central bank policy, M&A activity, and structural shifts shaping regional opportunities. Overall, it highlights how diversification and selectivity remain critical in navigating an increasingly complex and fast-moving investment backdrop.
Why you should listen to the interview: A timely, big-picture view of global markets, from AI-driven concentration and inflation risks to shifting regional performance. It offers practical insights into where opportunities are emerging beyond the US, and why diversification across geographies and sectors is becoming increasingly important for investors right now.
This interview was recorded on 29 June 2026. Please note, answers are edited and condensed for clarity. To gain a fuller understanding and clearer context, please listen to the full interview.
Interview highlights:
Inflation, oil and geopolitical Risk
“There are different types of inflation. You can get inflation when you have a booming economy—everyone’s working, everyone’s spending—and central banks raise rates to calm things down. But here in the UK we don’t have a booming economy. We have a depressed economy, weak employment, and young people struggling to find work.
“I’ve had more emails recently from people looking for internships than I’ve had in the previous five years combined, which gives you a sense of the underlying weakness in the labour market.
“We still may have this inflationary lag from the oil price. So it’s a key metric to look at today, is the oil price. But with respect to the conflict in the Middle East, I mean it never ends. It stops, it slows, it quietens but it doesn’t end.”
Global market concentration
“The first and still continuing wave of the AI trade is in the US stock market. There’s no doubt about it, but we talked about Asia and emerging markets where there is huge overlap.
“The Asian part of emerging markets, China, Taiwan, Korea, and things like the Korean stock market – I haven’t checked for the last couple of weeks, but it was up 100% this year and probably several hundred percent last year based on a handful of stocks which supply the memory to the AI trade in America.
“So that appears to be the dominating feature, given how strong Asia and emerging markets have been in the last, not just this year but also last. There is definitely a convergence of that AI trade which investors need to just be aware of. You think technology, you think AI, you naturally think the States.
“That’s not what’s been driving Asia. Asia’s been driven by the technology in a slightly different part of the chain, but technology nonetheless.
“It’s not just software anymore. It’s power generation, infrastructure, data centres, the equipment behind it. So they are secondary relatives. And I think if we go back to our previous question about the correlation and concentration of some of these themes, it’s probably 50% of all world stock market is in this high growth AI tech theme.
“And I think investors just need to be aware of that concentration. It’s fine, I’m not saying it’s a bad thing, I’m saying it’s a good thing, it’s just a thing that people ought to be aware of.”
India’s underperformance
“Believe me, I’m well aware of India’s performance. I’ve got quite a lot invested there myself. So there’s a few factors at play there. The fundamental problem is that foreign investors have been pulling out of India, which started last year with high valuations there basically and more tempting AI investment opportunities elsewhere.
“And then this year you’ve had the Iran war and India is a large importer of oil. And the higher cost of oil obviously impacts corporate profitability there. So I think if we see a definite end to the Iran war, then India’s economic growth and corporate earnings are likely to sort of bounce back to their longer-term trend.
“And foreign investors are likely to return. And you know, crises like this have often turned out to be good points of entry, and actually India has been one of the top performing sectors over the past month—almost 6%.
“The simple answer why India hasn’t done so well is it doesn’t have an AI industry. It doesn’t have any of the bits that fit into the food chain. So you probably wouldn’t be that upset about a major stock market down 7% over a year, but then everything else is up 25%, 20%. It all gets relatively worse.”
UK valuations and M&A activity
“The UK has actually in the past two or three years done a bit better without the AI trade. And there have been other forces at play. The UK stock market is full of oil companies and mining companies, and mining, particularly precious metals, were very strong in 2025 and 2024.
“And I think more money did flow back into the UK last year, but primarily into the larger companies and aggressively people tended to be buying more passive. I saw a chart only last week that actually says the UK large cap is now not super cheap, like around 4% to its intrinsic value, but actually the UK smaller companies that we mentioned are now 50% cheap versus their intrinsic value.
“So you can still have a strong stock market without AI. But the UK’s probably been the standout differentiator from that theme.
“I mean M&A obviously has been helping, but we’ve heard from some managers that even though companies are being purchased at a premium to their current valuation, they still think they’re being sold for far below their true value, which is frustrating.
“And unfortunately I don’t think that the government provides that sort of environment to attract investors back to the UK. And I’m not entirely sure that the imminent change of prime minister is going to help.”
Conclusion: As we reach the 400th episode milestone, the discussion highlights just how dynamic and unpredictable markets remain.
From geopolitical shocks and inflation pressures to AI-led concentration and regional divergence, investors are navigating a complex environment. Yet beneath the noise, themes are emerging, including the broadening of returns and renewed opportunities outside the US.
Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns. You may not get back the amount originally invested, and tax rules can change over time. The writer’s views are their own and do not constitute financial advice.
This information should not be relied upon by retail clients or investment professionals. Reference to any particular investment does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the investment.
Main image: Podcast, will-francis-ZDNyhmgkZlQ-unsplash
