UK inflation eased to 2.8% in the 12 months to April, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.
The figure was down from 3.3% in the 12 months to March, beating economists’ expectations of a 3% reading.
On a monthly basis, inflation rose by 0.7% in April, compared with a rise of 1.2% in April 2025.
Housing and household services made the largest downward contribution, particularly gas and electricity, helping to offset a sharp rise in fuel costs since the start of the Iran war.
Electricity prices fell by 8.4% in April 2026, compared with a rise of 2.9% a year ago, partly driven by Ofgem’s lower energy price cap. Meanwhile, gas prices fell by 4.4% in April 2026, compared with a rise of 7.5% a year ago.
In contrast, motor fuel prices rose by 23% in the 12 months to April, compared with a rise of 4.9% in the year to March. The April figure was the highest annual increase recorded since September 2022, the ONS said.
However, despite inflation slowing more than expected, experts have warned that respite is likely to be short-lived amid the war in Iran.
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said: “While this respite is clearly welcomed, it will be short lived as the energy price cap is expected to rise nearly 13% in July as higher underlying energy costs, caused by Donald Trump’s decision to again attack Iran, are included in the next calculation.
“It was also noted that motor fuel saw a large increase, underscoring the potential threats that still lurk for consumers and businesses and thus we should prepare for this month to be an outlier and inflation to spike once more.”
Mike Ambery, retirement savings director at Standard Life, commented: “Today’s inflation figure of 2.8% shows some welcome easing. However, with inflation still above the Bank of England’s 2% target, the overall picture remains uncertain and pressures have by no means disappeared.
“While a lower reading offers some immediate reassurance, there are signs inflation could pick up again through the summer. Rising global energy costs, driven by war in the Middle East, are expected to feed through into a higher Ofgem price cap from 1st July – pushing household bills back up and highlighting just how uneven the path back to target could be. At the same time, the recent easing may partly reflect more cautious consumers, who have held back on spending amid uncertainty in recent months.”
With inflationary risks persisting, the Bank of England is likely to take a cautious approach to interest rates, say commentators.
Kevin Brown, savings expert at Scottish Friendly, said: “Today’s figure is unlikely to provide comfort to the Bank of England that inflation pressures are back under control. Another inflation reading is still to come before policymakers next meet in June, which should provide a clearer picture of underlying price pressures ahead of the Bank’s next rate decision.
“If living costs continue to rise over the summer – especially as wage growth slows – many households could find themselves under renewed financial pressure.”
Isabel Albarran, investment officer at TrinityBridge, said: “Looking ahead, 2-3 rate hikes are expected in the UK in the coming twelve months, reflecting concerns that inflation could remain sticky. However, rising unemployment and slowing wage growth will make it harder for consumers to stomach higher prices. This backdrop makes it more difficult for an energy-based inflation spike to morph to a 2022-style wage-price spiral.
“As the summer progresses, we expect the negative growth effects of higher energy prices to increasingly come to the attention of policy makers, as shortages begin to bite. Growth forecast downgrades should follow, along with a greater caution around rate hikes.”
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