AI can now predict whether someone will get Alzheimer’s years in advance. James Mabey, Partner at Winckworth Sherwood, looks at what this means for Wills and care planning.
In July 2024, a team of scientists from the University of Cambridge published research in eClinical Medicine unveiling an artificial intelligence tool capable of predicting whether someone with early symptoms will go on to develop Alzheimer’s disease. The study showed the AI model can predict whether someone with mild cognitive impairment will remain stable or progress to Alzheimer’s within three years and, where progression occurs, whether that progression is likely to be fast or slow.
According to Alzheimer’s Research UK, around 1 in 3 people born in the UK today will be affected by dementia in their lifetime, either experiencing it themselves, caring for someone with the condition, or both. At present, diagnosis often relies on invasive and costly brain scans or lumbar punctures, which are not widely available. As a result, early diagnosis is still not possible for many.
The Cambridge team’s machine learning model analyses routinely collected, non-invasive data – such as MRI brain scans and results from standard memory and thinking tests – from patients in the UK, US and Singapore. In testing, it correctly identified those who progressed to Alzheimer’s in around 82% of cases and those who did not in about 81%, which is nearly three times more accurate than current clinical tools.
Importantly, the model can also group patients into slow‑ and fast‑progressing categories. That could help individuals and families plan for the future and could improve clinical trials by selecting participants most likely to benefit from new treatments. For new patients, this kind of advance warning can provide time to make informed choices about care and finances.
From an estate planning perspective, having an early and reliable indication of Alzheimer’s risk and likely progression can be the prompt to get a client’s affairs in order well ahead of a decline in mental capacity.
Wills
Having a valid Will in place is a crucial first step and will help ensure assets pass according to the client’s intentions. Is the Will is up to date, does it reflect current wishes, and do the executors know the location of the original?
Lasting Powers of Attorney
Lasting Powers of Attorney (“LPAs”) are important documents that allow the appointment of a trusted person or persons to help manage clients’ affairs when they are no longer able to do so themselves.
There are two types of LPAs:
A Property and Financial Affairs LPA allows your attorneys to manage bank accounts and pensions, pay bills, and manage any property, among other matters.
A Health and Welfare LPA allows attorneys to make health and care decisions, such as where the client should live and whether they should receive life-sustaining treatment.
Putting LPAs in place is particularly important if the client is at risk of developing a disorder affecting their mental capacity. Without them, loved ones would have to apply for a court appointed deputy to make decisions on their behalf – a more expensive and time-consuming process.
Communicating wishes
Discovering the likely development of Alzheimer’s is also a valuable opportunity for the client to talk with loved ones about how they want to be supported in the future. Taking the time to note down how they feel about key decisions an attorney or executor may have to make, such as the type of care they would like to receive or their desired funeral arrangements, will ensure those around them are properly equipped to act in their best interests.
Beyond its potential to give individuals and families valuable time to prepare, the Cambridge AI model could also transform dementia research. By identifying both the likelihood and speed of progression, it enables scientists to match the right patients to the right treatments, improving the chances of success in clinical trials and reducing the time and cost of developing new medicines. Combined with other emerging tools – such as blood tests for early dementia detection – this technology offers a rare opportunity: to act sooner, plan with clarity, and ease the practical and emotional burden on loved ones.
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