Global bond markets reassess the monetary policy outlook

30 September 2026

Aviva Investors’ chart of the month illustrates how global bond markets remain under pressure due to renewed inflation concerns and a general shift to tighter monetary policy.

Global bond markets remained under pressure as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation, economic growth and central bank policy.

As a result, 10-year sovereign yields rose materially higher across the US, Japan, Germany and the UK.

In September, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan each raised interest rates by 25 basis points, reflecting renewed inflation concerns and a broader shift towards tighter monetary policy.

By contrast, the Bank of England held rates unchanged, opting to wait for clearer evidence that the recent energy-driven inflation shock is becoming embedded in domestic price and wage pressures before tightening further.

UK government bond yields are represented by the UK 10-Year Gilt Index (GTGBP10YR), US government bond yields by the US 10-Year Treasury Index (USGG10YR), German government bond yields (used as a proxy for the Euro Area) by the 10-Year Bund Index (GTDEM10YR), and Japanese government bond yields by 10-Year Japanese Government Bond Index (GTJPY10YR).

Source: Aviva Investors and Bloomberg, as at 21 September 2026 – a fully interactive version of this chart can be found here: Why global bonds remain under pressure – Aviva Investors

Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns. You may not get back the amount originally invested, and tax rules can change over time. The writer’s views are their own and do not constitute financial advice. 

This information should not be relied upon by retail clients or investment professionals. Reference to any particular investment does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the investment.

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